It sickens yet intrigues me as I religiously flip through Arabic satellite television channels every night to follow the ongoing conflicts defining the Middle East. Updates on Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Iraq are splattered all over the news as is the blood of their people on their soil. However, we cannot forget Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Lebanon, these are also fractured lands torn apart by years of war and in the case of Lebanon, exacerbated by sectarian conflict. If you ask anyone from these states to describe their country, they will tell you how great their countries used to be. They are quick to bring up the “Paris of the Middle East”, the “Switzerland of the Middle East”, and stories of when they were kids, however none would mention the current state of their countries, let alone predictions of their future. They and everyone else know that there is no end to the conflicts, at least not in the foreseeable future. Many wonder why this may be the case, and the fingers are quickly pointed at the United States of America. However, equally neglected are the effects of internal drivers, namely political, social, economic, and demographic factors. Some may say that all that is needed to heal these countries wounds is time; after all, the United States of America was engaged in its own bloody civil war and is now a developed country and a world super power. However true that might be, there are clear differences between the United States civil war and the Arab conflicts currently raging on. Namely, the inability of one side to crush the other, the unlikeliness of one identity to emerge victorious over another, outside interference, and the fact that the maps of the Arab nations will probably change for the worse than for the better. To put it simply: the problems plaguing Middle Eastern countries are rooted in a lack of education and employment, the result of years of nation building without the consent and participation of their own citizens, and external influence.
1. Stranded in the education-less and jobless desert
The first industrial revolution came and it brought with it great wealth, knowledge and prosperity to many nations throughout the world. The Second Industrial revolution followed and rapid industrial development occurred again. Now we are in the Third Industrial Revolution, or the Digital Revolution, and now more than ever knowledge is being spread at a rate never before witnessed. Our world has become so small that it is dubbed “a global village”. However, one thing that these revolutions tend to have in common is the fact that they skipped over a region that spans 8641070 sq. km: the Middle East. Countries in the Middle East have not progressed with the times and are stuck playing catch up.
Whether it is infrastructure development, education, or employment rates, countries in the Middle East are consistently under-performing. And this does not bode well for them, especially since they are lacking in education and employment opportunities. In a recent UNICEF report it was estimated that more than 21 million children and young adolescents in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are out of school or at risk of dropping out of school. Among those children, 3 million are from Iraq and Syria. The same UNICEF report says that a girl in MENA has a 25 percent reduced chance of getting an education. Similarly, unemployment rates remain stubbornly high. In a 2014 report by the World Bank the youth unemployment rate in the MENA region averaged about 22 percent for males and 39 percent for female.Unfortunately, economic growth is not much better, ranging from 1.3 percent in Iraq to 4 percent in Egypt. Weak economic performance and weaker governance has created the perfect opportunity for extremist groups to swoop in and take advantage of the young, uneducated, and poor populace. They provide a meager yet stable income, a change in governance from the status quo, and a promise for a better life in the “next life.” With promises like that hordes of young people have joined the ranks of the dominant extremist groups infiltrating the Middle East.
2. Maybe it’s you and not me
However, many may also try to attribute many of these conflicts to the growing “cold-war” between regional powers Iran and Saudi Arabia, however that is an oversimplification of the situation. A prime example of this is the ongoing conflict in Yemen. The root of the violence in Yemen goes back decades, before the development of the relatively recent Saudi- Iranian tensions. The problem with Yemen is that it never achieved genuine stability and legitimacy from the consent and participation of its own citizens. Yemen is an example of a country which has been plagued by a disease afflicting most of the Middle East and leading to its destruction.Since the 1950s many Arab nations have been plagued by the long- term rule of individuals that maintain power through their armed forces. A prime example is Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh who rules Yemen with an iron fist, all while stealing the nation’s wealth for 33 years. And unsurprisingly he is now working on getting back into power either directly or by using his son as a proxy.
3. The Iran and Saudi Arabia tug of war
Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that external interference also contributes to these raging conflicts. Unsurprisingly, the first mention of outside influence by most includes Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both have their horns locked in a regional battle, each one trying to gain regional dominance and each trying to spread their ideologies. When these regional influences play on the sectarian line it causes major rifts among the populace. The sectarian lines are torn open and canyons are carved between both sides, making sure that any attempt at reason and diplomacy will fall through and the conflict will be alive and well for years to come. Even in a post-conflict era, a country would have a new identity, however, unlike the United States which emerged from its civil war as a new nation with a clear sense of identity and purpose, most of these countries will remain split along sectarian lines remaining stagnant instead of making progress. Neighborhoods that were mixed become split with clear demarcations between the two sides, former friends become enemies, and only intolerance exists.
In the end, it seems like the role of “the West” is greatly exaggerated as the main role of the conflicts running rampant in the Middle East. The problems these countries face is due to the lack of education and unemployment for the youth of the countries, the constant oppression and rule under dictatorships, and the interference of external, regional powers in these conflicts. A sad reality is that the longer these conflicts rage on, the wider the divide between the two sides become and ultimately, the greater the increase in poverty and decrease in education. All these factors provide a fertile breeding ground for extremist groups to swoop in and take control. And as long as these factors remain unaddressed, even if ISIS is wiped out, an ISIS 2.0 will rise from the ashes. After all, the ingredients for disaster are still there.
By Hussein El-Khechen
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