In January, Juan Guaido, leader of the Venezuelan National Assembly, added the title of interim president to his resume. At least, this was to the understanding of Canada, the United States, and most European Union member states. Citizens of Guaido’s country, however, were not nearly as sure as to who was leading them.
Prior to Guaido declaring himself president, Nicolas Maduro had been sworn in as president for his second term after defeating Henri Falcon on January 10th. His first term, from April 19, 2013 to January 9th of this year was fraught with political unrest. The Venezuelan economy took a major hit in 2014 from falling oil prices. Combined with sanctions and regulations on its currency, the country is set to expect the price of goods to rise 700 percent this year alone. Alongside issues with growing discontent among his citizens, he has also been struggling to keep his political rivals at bay, and the military under his control. Due to speculation that the presidential election was rigged, his formal opposition, the party to which Juan Guaido belongs, does not recognize his current presidency. Not long after the results were announced, Juan Guaido jumped headfirst into the ring. He stood in front of a crowd and told them that he would be assuming the duties of president until the Venezuelan Constitution could be restored.
The articles of the Venezuelan constitution that Guaido used to justify his claim to presidency are not indisputable pieces of legislation. First, Article 233 of the constitution states what is to occur when a president cannot serve prior to and after inauguration. It clearly outlines that the National Assembly has the right to declare abandonment of the office of the president; to take over the position temporarily; and to not abuse such power. Even if that part of the article was found to be valid, it is further complicated by the fact that the president of the National Assembly only takes over if the president becomes unavailable before inauguration, after which the line of succession then falls to the Vice-President. Secondly, the other two articles cited by Guaido, Articles 333 and 350, simply remind the Venezuelan people that the Constitution is valid even when ignored, and that citizens have a duty to uphold their constitution and what it stands for. While the world and the citizens may acknowledge Guaido’s claim, the Venezuelan military still stands with Maduro. In other words, if Juan Guaido was truly standing alone, he would most likely have fallen by now.
However, Guaido has turned to the US for help. While this may solidify his position as president, it also metaphorically throws jet fuel onto an already raging fire.
In the case of Venezuela, history provides important context to understanding the decisions made in regard to the current situation. America, and by proxy, Canada, are currently putting themselves in a position to repeat the historically entrenched mistake of interventionism in Latin America. The Cold War planted a very deep-seated fear of communism in the America, where the government and citizens worried that communism was spreading too close to their shore. This led to the backing of anti-communist coups and contras by the US, from Argentina to Nicaragua, ousting leaders they saw as threats along the way. They turned a blind eye to crimes against humanity and enriched their own interests amidst the chaos.
So when the majority of North America endorsed his political adversary, Maduro saw this as part of a historical trend, whereby the “kingmakers”, the US and its allies calling for his removal, were at work again. In this sense, Maduro knew that an effective “kingmaker” never leaves the previous royal alive and so he would inevitably be the United State’s next target.
Maduro’s fears have greatly affected the amount of aid able to enter Venezuela. His control of the military meant that he had locked down ports of entry in addition to rejecting and outright burning vehicles attempting to cross the border. As far as any government would be concerned, accepting goods championed by your usurper- which in this case explicitly come from a foreign government that denounces your administration and questions your legitimacy- would be the height of stupidity. By intervening in the Venezuelan presidential issue, Canada and the US are not only making it harder to bring the Venezuela back to the table for discussion, but it also becomes harder for aid to reach Venezuelan citizens who desperately need it. These heightened tensions where especially seen when US Vice-President Mike Pence made it clear that America recognized Guiado, not Maduro, as president, which made it increasingly difficult to hold any diplomatic discussions.
Conclusively, what is known right now is that Juan Guaido may or may not be president of his country. Outside countries declaring that they know what lies on the other end of a Venezuelan constitutional debate is conjecture at best, and gambling at worst. The international community is betting on Guaido to come out on top, using the citizens of Venezuela as poker chips. It is one thing to help in a humanitarian crisis, but it something completely different with political crises: they are solely the business of the people who will have to live with the consequences.
By Oluwafikunmi Kilanko
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