The Canadian Ambassador was recently expelled from Saudi Arabia, whilst the Kingdom has recalled their diplomatic corps and are working to relocate the 15,000 Saudi students currently living in Canada. This little spat was kicked off by the Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland criticising Saudi human rights abuses, specifically relating to the family-members of some newly naturalized Canadian citizens. Curious about Saudi Arabia, I journeyed into the annals of history to attempt to understand this mysterious and powerful kingdom.

History of Saudi Arabia

Political intrigue in the Arab world is not a new phenomenon. The seeds were sown back in the 7th century when rival political groups postured over the rightful heir to the Arabian empire after the untimely death (or assassination) of the presumptive heir to the throne. What started as political posturing splintered the religion into Sunni’s and Shia’s.

After the initial split, the seat of power in the Arab world vacillated between the Sunnis and Shia’s, until the Ottomans took full control of the region in the 15th century. The Ottomans were Sunnis. Nearly 90% of Muslims in the world today are Sunni. Most of the Middle East is Sunni.

To really understand Saudi Arabia, we have to go back to the 1740s and an alliance between Muhammad al-Wahhab and Muhammad bin Saud. It linked the house of Saud with al-Wahhab’s controversial and orthodox interpretation of Islam. It goes by Wahhabism today and underpins the ideology of al-Qaeda, Daesh, and other assorted terrorist groups. Wahhabism is a sect of Sunni Islam and views itself as a rigorous and righteous interpretation of the Quran. The house of Saud captured Mecca in the early 18th century but were thwarted by Ottoman Intervention. They tried to recapture Mecca in the late 18th century, but the Ottomans intervened again.

By World War One, the leader of the house of Saud – Ibn Saud – had cleverly allied himself with the British in an attempt to finally overthrow the Ottoman-backed Al-Rashid dynasty and establish Saudi control over the entire Arabian peninsula. Capturing Mecca and Medina was critical, as they are the two holiest sites in the Islamic religion – which would give Ibn Saud a tremendous amount of moral authority over the Muslim world.

Thanks to a combination of British weaponry, tactical acumen and a bit of luck, Ibn Saud was able to capture the entire Arabian peninsula and establish a kingdom. Which was governed by a fundamentalist Wahhabi interpretation of Sharia Law.

The discovery of oil in 1938 completely changed the trajectory of Saudi Arabia. At first, most of the oil and its rents went abroad, as the drilling, extracting and refining were controlled by American and British interests. Over time, the Saudi monarchy was able to purchase more and more control, until they completely controlled the flow of the resource by the 1980s. This led to unprecedented economic growth.

As with the rest of the region, Saudi Arabia was buffeted by a variety of international events in the postwar world. The creation of the state of Israel and the subsequent pan-Arab alliances framed the affairs of the region for decades. After yet another embarrassing military defeat, the Saudi’s and the other regional oil producers – OPEC – decided to test out their structural economic power. They refused to sell oil to the West. The oil shocks of 1973 demonstrated fundamentally the power the Arab regimes had over their former colonial masters. The Saudi’s have used this structural power ever since.

The Iranian revolution in 1979 was another critical moment. Iran was a secular society, ruled by a Western-backed dictator – the Shah. He was deposed by a multilateral coalition of civil society groups that were co-opted by Shia clerics, who promptly established a fundamentalist Shia theocracy. Suddenly, there was another regional power, that wasn’t Israel, that threatened Sunni Arab hegemony.

Gamal Abdel Nasser was the first proponent of Pan-Arabism in the postwar world order, but in the intervening years since his death in 1970, Saudi Arabia has taken up the mantle of Pan-Arabism. At its core, Pan-Arabism is an ideology that seeks to unify the Arab nations from Morocco to Iraq under the banner of universal Arab nationhood that harks back to the halcyon days of Prophet Muhammad’s first empire.

The Saudi’s have used their structural economic power to reinforce their vision of Pan-Arabism and push back against Iran. They’ve propped up Arab regimes in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, and Sudan for decades. Much like the British and Russians back in the 19th century competing over the Caucasus and Persia in the Great Game, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are competing over the Arabian peninsula and levant for influence.

In Lebanon, Iran has been backing and funding Hezbollah in an attempt to disrupt the tenuous balance of power between the Maronites, Shia’s and Sunnis. In Yemen, Iran has been backing the Houthi Rebels in an attempt to destabilize the Saudi-backed Sunni regime. Both Hezbollah and the Houthis are Shias. The forced resignation of Saad Hariri was a clear Saudi attempt to re-assert their dominance and influence.  

But here’s the thing, the Saudi regime itself is in turmoil, which makes their actions in the region even more troubling. To better understand, next we’ll have a look at the Saudi regime itself, and the Game-of-Thronesian intrigue that surrounds the court.

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Saudi governance

Political intrigue in the Saudi Arabian court reads like the script from a television show. The Saudi Royal Family rules the country and staffs every major government department. There are an estimated 7,000 royal princes, while most of the control is concentrated in the hands of a couple hundred. Every single one is a descendant of Ibn Saud. The Royal Family rules in conjunction with the Ulema. The Ulema are a council of Islamic scholars, who provide the moral backing to the Saudi regime. Most large Islamic civilizations throughout history have had an Ulema governing cultural, social and moral affairs, from the Umayyads to the Ottomans.

Saudi Arabia is governed by the alliance established by Muhammad bin Saud and Muhammad al-Wahhab back in the 18th century. The Ulema give the regime legitimacy, while the regime protects the interests of the Ulema.

The current Grand Mufti of the Ulema in Saudi Arabia is a direct descendant of Muhammad al-Wahhab. The King is naturally a descendant of Muhammad bin Saud.

Saudi Arabia is an oligarchical fiefdom, ruled by two very old and powerful families. The Saud’s control of the economy and the military, while the al-Wahhab’s claim moral authority over Sunni Islam – a powerful combination. Bear in mind that the overarching majority of Sunni Muslims around the world reject Wahhabist teaching due to its retrograde fundamentalist ideals.

The Saud’s control most of the media in the country and the region, and if a journalist is deemed too critical of the regime, they’re kindly asked to stop publishing and their travel privileges are revoked. Dissent is not tolerated. There were protests in the early 2010s around the Arab Spring. Most of the leaders of those protests have already been executed, while the rest are rotting in jail. Suddenly the plot to blockade Qatar and silence Al-Jazeera makes more sense now.

(The author apologizes in advance for the steady torrent of names and dates to follow)

Saudi Arabia is a unitary absolute monarchy. When Ibn Saud died in 1953, his eldest living son, Saud, took over. Saud was corrupt and incompetent, so his younger brother Faisal orchestrated a coup and exiled him in 1964. Faisal was assassinated in 1975 by a disgruntled nephew. His younger brother Khalid became the new king. Khalid passed away in 1982, his younger brother Fahd became King. Fahd was King for over twenty years but was incapacitated by a stroke in 1995, and his younger brother Abdallah slowly assumed control, becoming King when Fahd died in 2005. Abdallah left us in 2015 and his younger brother Salman ascended. Salman is still the king. And yes, every single leader of Saudi Arabia since the death of Ibn Saud has been of his sons. In standard Wahhabist practice, Ibn Saud had an unknown number of wives and at least 37 sons.

As long as Ibn Saud had living sons, the succession was a simple process. The sitting King would appoint a Crown Prince and a Deputy Crown Prince from the pool of sons. Once the King dies, the Crown Prince takes over, and the Deputy moves up. Some have turned down the title of Crown prince, preferring a younger brother to take the role. Others have been forced out.

Saudi experts have been monitoring this situation for decades, with a simple question: how will the house of Saud manage the generational transition from the sons of Ibn Saud to a much more fragmented younger generation. Recall that there are over 7,000 princes, all of whom could theoretically claim the throne – as the only real qualifications are membership in the Saud family and maleness.

Until 2007, only the King could appoint a successor. There was a protracted squabble after King Fahd passed away in 2005. King Abdallah established a new succession plan – an Allegiance Council would now ratify the kings’ appointed successor. This is about as democratic as Saudi Arabia gets seeing as the Allegiance Council is entirely staffed by sons and Grandsons of Ibn Saud.

King Abdullah appointed Salman as his Crown Prince, and Muqrin as the Deputy Crown Prince. Muqrin is the youngest surviving son of Ibn Saud. Once Salman became King he broke with protocol, pushed Muqrin out and appointed his nephew as Crown Prince, and his own son as Deputy Crown Prince.  This was the first time in Saudi history that the Crown Prince wasn’t a direct child of Ibn Saud, and the first time a child of a sitting regent was in the direct line of succession. Salman promptly doubled down on his quiet coup in the summer of 2017, pushed out his nephew and made his son – Mohammad bin Salman – the presumptive heir, and Crown Prince. All the while, Mohammad bin Salman was quietly centralizing authority and pushing out his rivals.

Mohammad bin-Salman is 32 years old. He will soon be the King of one of the richest, yet intensely authoritarian regimes in the world. He’s impetuous, inexperienced and desperate to prove himself. The blockade of Qatar, the intervention in Yemen and the deposition of Hariri have all been linked back to him. Even the most recent spat with Canada has bin-Salman’s fingerprints all over it. The Saudi’s have a simple strategy – maintaining regional hegemony.

So who is Mohammad bin Salman? Read on, for a little profile of a man that Buzzfeed called “The most influential millennial in the world”.  

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Mohammad bin Salman

Prince Mohammad bin Salman is a preposterously fascinating individual. Buzzfeed called him the world’s most influential millennial. That’s gotta be worth something, right? He’s positioned himself as a reformer – and it makes sense. He’s 32. The majority of the Saudi population is under 25. A full 75% are under 34. Saudi Arabia has been ostensibly ruled by grandfathers for generations. Visually, he looks just like his grandfather, Ibn Saud, tall, hulking, handsome and intimidating. The hope is that he will mirror his grandfather and preside over sweeping changes in Saudi Arabia for generations to come.

MbS – as he’s known to Saudis – has pushed for previously unthinkable reforms. Women are now able to drive and the cinemas will be reopened. He’s even taking on the clergy. The conservative clergy that’s dominated the house of Saud since the 18th century. Young Saudi’s grew up in the era of globalization – they live in a new world, and they want to be part of it. They don’t care for politics, just lifestyle. They’re sick of the morality police. MbS knows that. Because he’s one of them.

It is clear that he is quite politically ambitious, and possesses a tremendous force of personality. He’s been able to seamlessly purge his rivals. He’s clearly attempting to remodel and reorient the entire Saudi establishment. He’s arrested hundreds of leading members of his own Royal Family under the guise of an anti-corruption campaign, reportedly shaking them down for money and support.

Take this wild example – remember Muqrin? The youngest living son of Ibn Saud, who was deposed as Crown Prince in the first quiet coup back in 2015? Well, Muqrin’s son died in a helicopter crash in November 2017. MbS knows his purges have created enemies, and that his enemies will try to rally around a figurehead. He got rid of a potential figurehead. Machiavelli eat your heart out.

He’s been working tirelessly to both promote his own image and his audacious plan to restructure the Saudi economy with the ambitious Saudi 2030 plan, intended to wean the country off its dependence on oil. Which is something that resonates really strongly with the majority of Saudis.

Naturally, he is also an impetuous billionaire. He was vacationing in the south of France in 2016 and saw a yacht he liked. He dispatched an aide to buy it. For 550$ million. Sounds like the work of a self-described anti-corruption czar eh?

He’s ambitious but also resents religious theocracy – a fascinating mix. There’s a wonderful pull quote from an interview he did with the Guardian:

“What happened in the last 30 years is not Saudi Arabia. What happened in the region in the last 30 years is not the Middle East. After the Iranian revolution in 1979, people wanted to copy this model in different countries, one of them is Saudi Arabia. We didn’t know how to deal with it. And the problem spread all over the world. Now is the time to get rid of it”

Keen observers of the middle east over the last fifty years will note that almost without fail, whenever a moderate attempt to reform in a climate of intense polarization and passion, the moderate is assassinated. Sadat… Rabin….

He wants to modernize Saudi Arabia and reduce its dependence on oil. He wants to diversify the economy and provide better and more fulfilling jobs that will reflect the 21st century. He wants to stamp out corruption and the centralization of authority.

Mais, l’etat c’est moi.

Which isn’t lost on me.

Tuko Pamoja,

Rashid

Sources not cited in text

Deborah Gerner and Jillian Schwedler, “Understanding the Contemporary Middle East” Lynne Rienner Publishers: Colorado, 2008.

Deborah Gerner and Jillian Schwedler, “Understanding the Contemporary Middle East” Lynne Rienner Publishers: Colorado, 2008.